01 / 06
Open models in October 2026: how far behind, and what it takes to run them
Two releases this week: Meta's Muse Spark Open on 15 October (816B parameters, 42B active) and a new DeepSeek V4.1 Flash checkpoint on 17 October (MIT licence). On the Artificial Analysis index the best open models now score 45 to 46. The best closed model scores 58.
How far behind is that? Epoch AI measured an average lag of four months for the best open model, six on a stricter test (29 May). Other measurements reach 8 to 10 months on private benchmarks. The models that fit on one desk are further behind: Qwen3.8-27B scores 34 on the same index.
My view: Arete AIOS will run on a local computer or a VPS with a local model, and some tasks will still go to Claude or ChatGPT because they are smarter today. I estimate local models are three to eight months behind. The table shows what each model needs and which closed model it roughly matches.
Watch from 00:25 ↗
Practical usageFor business brain builders · 1 prompt to copy · 7 reference examples · 7 tables · 4 steps · not tested yet
How this affects business brain builders
Route by task: private, repetitive work to a local model, hard reasoning to a frontier model, and mask personal data before anything leaves your machine.
Examples, demos and evidence
Each example names its source and whose work it shows. Open the source for the full context.
Local and cloud models sharing the work
Alex Ziskind, 20 October 2026, 12:28. A hybrid setup that keeps private records local.
Alex Ziskind · YouTube ↗The likeliest small-business model on two Macs
Elite Test Engineering, 28 September 2026, 29:11. Qwen3.8-27B at 4-bit on a 96 GB and a 256 GB Mac Studio.
Elite Test Engineering · YouTube ↗
DeepSeek's own table for the new checkpoint
Vendor measurements. Against Claude Opus 5 it is better on DeepSWE (77.0 vs 74.0), AutomationBench (60.5 vs 50.3) and Agents' Last Exam (35.4 vs 28.6), and behind on Humanity's Last Exam (42.6 vs 56.3), Terminal-Bench 4.0 (42.3 vs 51.8) and ProgramBench (29.1 vs 37.0). Artificial Analysis scores it 45.
DeepSeek · model card, 17 Oct ↗
Meta's own table for Muse Spark Open (excerpt)
Vendor measurements. It leads MCP-Atlas tool use (89.2, next best 84.5) but trails Beam, Qwen3.8, GLM-5.3 and Kimi K3 on Terminal-Bench 2.1 (76.4 against 80.1 to 85.0) and on DeepSWE against GLM-5.3 and Kimi K3 (60 against 67 and 68). Artificial Analysis scores it 39.
Meta · model card, 15 Oct ↗
The full Epoch AI chart
Epoch AI: since January 2026 the most capable open models have lagged the frontier by an average of four months, a gap of 8 index points. Epoch says the gap may be understated because open models do worse on private benchmarks.
Epoch AI · data insight, 29 May ↗
99 days of local agents on one Mac
Federico Viticci ran local agents around the clock for 99 days over 310 documents for his iOS review, on an M5 Ultra Mac Studio, with no API costs. His daily assistant is Hermes Agent with Qwen3.8-Flash-Next. He calls the setup fiddly and bleeding edge.
MacStories · 21 Sep ↗
Buy a computer or rent a GPU: the cash-cost chart
Our scenario calculation, checked 26 October. A newly bought $2,499 Mac Studio M5 Max versus a rented RTX 4090: 60 allocated hours/month or 730. The cash lines cross at about 45 months and 4 months respectively, assuming the same schedule continues. These are different machines; no equal speed, model quality or completed-work claim is made. The chosen model and context must fit both. Click the chart to open it at full size.
Arete AIOS · full-size calculation chart, 26 Oct ↗Checked 22 Oct 2026: licences differ. MIT: DeepSeek, MiMo, GLM-5.3-Flash. Apache 2.0: Qwen3.8-27B, Muse Glimmer, Gemma 4. Custom licences with extra terms for large commercial services: Kimi K3, Muse Spark Open, GLM-5.3. Muse Spark Open also requires a Built with Muse Spark Open notice. Hardware prices are list or shop prices found on 22 Oct.
Not tested yetList the recurring tasks in my business system. For each task, mark: does it touch personal or client data, does it need hard reasoning, and how often does it run. Then propose which tasks a local model on my own computer or VPS should do, which should go to a frontier model, and what must be masked before anything leaves my machine.
- List the recurring tasks in your business system with the prompt above.
- Start local with one private, repetitive task such as document summaries. Qwen3.8-27B on a 128 GB Mac or one RTX 5090 is the realistic single-machine option today.
- Set reasoning to low or medium for routine work, and do not compress models below 4-bit.
- Keep planning and complex tool work on Claude or ChatGPT, and mask personal data before it leaves your machine.
| Model and release | Size (total / active) | Runs at 15+ tokens/s on | Hardware cost | AA score and closed model at the same score | Users say |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017, 17 Oct | 552B / 16B | 512 GB Mac Studio: 20 tokens/s at 4-bit | Above $10,000 | 45, GPT-6 Astra (low) 46 | Biggest Hacker News thread; local support still immature |
| MiMo-V2.6-Pro (Xiaomi), 21 Sep | 1.02T / 42B | Server only, about 580 GB at 4-bit | Not found | 46, GPT-6 Astra (low) 46 | No user reports found |
| GLM-5.3 (Z.ai), 28 Aug | 753B / 40B | 512 GB Mac at 4-bit; speed not measured | Above $10,000 | 45; vendor: beats Opus 4.8 on Terminal-Bench 2.1 | Well ahead of Muse |
| Kimi K3 (Moonshot), 27 Jul | 2.8T / 104B | Four 512 GB Macs: about 14.7 tokens/s | 4 x above $10,000 | 44, Claude Haiku 5.5 (max) 43 | Excellent, impractical locally |
| Muse Spark Open (Meta), 15 Oct | 816B / 42B | Two M5 Ultra Macs: 25 tokens/s | Two machines above $10,000 each | 39, GPT-6 Luna (max) 38 | Far behind DeepSeek and GLM |
| GLM-5.3-Flash (Z.ai), 26 Aug | 320B / 18B | 256 GB M5 Ultra: 41 tokens/s | About $14,000 | 42, GPT-5.6 Terra (max) 42 | Loops when compressed to 2-bit |
| Qwen3.8-Flash-Next (Alibaba), 26 Aug | 125B / 6B | M5 Ultra: 108 tokens/s; DGX Spark: 28 | $5,000 to $14,000 | 40, Gemini 3.8 Flash (medium) | Fast; gaps in forced tool calls |
| Qwen3.8-27B (Alibaba), 14 Aug | 27B dense | RTX 5090 at 4-bit: 59 tokens/s; 128 GB MacBook Pro: 33 to 37 | RTX 5090: $1,999 list, over EUR 5,000 in EU shops | 34, Claude Haiku 5.5 (medium) 34 | Trusted for routine work; overthinks at default settings |
| Muse Glimmer (Meta), 10 Aug | 30B dense | One consumer GPU, about 18 GB at 4-bit; not measured | One GPU | 35 on the August index | Good with tools; high hallucination rate |
| Gemma 4 (Google), 2 Apr | Up to 31B | Small version: 31 tokens/s on a 16 GB Mac mini | Entry Mac or GPU | Below 25 | Crashes reported under heavy load |
How popular open models are
Downloads and token share are not the same as business adoption.
| Source | Finding | When |
|---|---|---|
| OpenRouter, via Bloomberg | US models' share of tokens fell from about 70% to about 30%; DeepSeek is the largest provider at 16.3% | Jun 2025 to Jun 2026 |
| Vercel AI Gateway | Open models carried 29% of tokens, up from 11% in April, but under 4% of spend | Jun 2026 |
| Hugging Face | Qwen models downloaded 2,045 million times; llama.cpp-format repositories grew 464% | Jan to Jul 2026 |
| Mozilla and SlashData, 1,494 developers | 79% use open models; 51% run them in production, against 63% for closed models | 2026 survey |
What stays local, what goes to the frontier
| Task | Where | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Search across your own files | Local | Small embedding models are enough |
| Extract and cross-reference private documents | Local | The data stays with you |
| Digests, summaries and first drafts | Local | High volume, low risk |
| Routine coding sub-tasks | Local | Users report it works |
| Planning and hard reasoning | Frontier | Open models still lag here |
| Long agentic work with many tools | Frontier | Tool-calling is less reliable |
What if I buy a new computer now?
Checked 26 Oct 2026. Complete computer prices from Apple US, before tax, without monitor or peripherals. These are representative purchase tiers, not a claim that Macs are the only option. The monthly column is purchase price / 36 plus assumed 24/7 electricity at $0.20/kWh and 35/100/180 W respectively. It is an ownership-cost illustration, not a finance or lease payment; EU shop prices and VAT differ. Model sizes below are memory-sizing examples at 4-bit, not measured performance on these configurations.
| New computer | Memory / rough model tier | Pay upfront | Electricity / month, 730 h | Purchase / 36 + electricity / month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac mini M6 | 16 GB unified; small 7–8B models | $899.00 | $5.11 | $30.08 |
| Mac Studio M5 Max | 36 GB unified; 27B class | $2,499.00 | $14.60 | $84.02 |
| Mac Studio M5 Ultra | 96 GB unified; 70B class | $5,499.00 | $26.28 | $179.03 |
Linux on a VPS: where is the model actually running?
A CPU VPS can run the agent, memory and scheduling while an API supplies the model; add the API bill below. Small models can also run on a CPU if they fit, but installing Linux or Ollama does not add GPU hardware. Hetzner's catalog price excludes IPv4 and VAT; its public CX23 page was marked unavailable. GPU rows use Runpod Secure Cloud on-demand Pods: no upfront hardware purchase, provider power included. Each total adds 50 GB standard network storage at $3.50/month and 20 GB container disk at $2/month prorated to running time, following the storage rules. GPU allocation must stop outside the 60-hour schedule; an idle running Pod still costs money. Capacity is not reserved.
| Hosting option | Memory / role | Compute rate | 60 running h / month | 730 running h / month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPU VPS: Hetzner CX23 | 2 vCPU, 4 GB RAM, no GPU; agent + API | $6.49/month catalog | $6.49 + model API | $6.49 + model API |
| Runpod RTX A5000 | 24 GB GPU VRAM; speed differs | $0.27/hour | $19.86 | $202.60 |
| Runpod RTX 4090 | 24 GB GPU VRAM; speed differs | $0.89/hour | $57.06 | $655.20 |
ChatGPT and Claude subscriptions: what the monthly price buys
Web USD prices checked 26 Oct. These buy included usage with limits, not a dedicated GPU or a guaranteed token quantity. ChatGPT Plus and Pro tiers; Claude pricing and Max details. Taxes and mobile prices may differ.
| App plan | Monthly price | For an agent or your own application |
|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Plus | $20 | General API usage is billed separately. Eligible participating tools can request permission to use the included Sign in with ChatGPT allowance. |
| ChatGPT Pro | $100 / $200 / $500 | Three current tiers; usage allowances differ. Pro 500 includes Ultrafast. Do not treat the app plan as an unlimited API balance. |
| Claude Pro | $20, or $200/year | Interactive app/Code allowance with limits; no monthly API credit. |
| Claude Max 5x / 20x | $100 / $200 | App allowance plus claimable $100 / $200 monthly API credits after eligibility and Console linking; session and weekly limits apply. |
Metered APIs: three monthly usage examples
A token is a piece of text, not a whole message. M means one million billable tokens; input and output are charged separately. Standard uncached text rates from OpenAI and Anthropic, checked 26 Oct. Short context; excludes batch/cache discounts, tool fees, regional surcharges and subscription credits. Include billable reasoning in output. The same token count does not mean the same result, speed or capability; it also does not tell us how many GPU hours a local model would need.
| Model | Per 1M input / output | 1M in + 0.2M out / month | 10M in + 2M out / month | 100M in + 20M out / month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Luna | $0.10 / $0.50 | $0.20 | $2.00 | $20.00 |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | $2.00 / $10.00 | $4.00 | $40.00 | $400.00 |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $2.00 / $10.00 | $4.00 | $40.00 | $400.00 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $4.00 / $20.00 | $8.00 | $80.00 | $800.00 |
Which video should I watch first?
Start with Alex Ziskind's 12-minute hybrid workflow, then Elite Test Engineering's 29-minute comparison on two Macs. The first is about splitting work between local and cloud models; the second makes the hardware question concrete.
How is the closed model matched?
By equal score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2 on 22 October. The pairing is my reading of their leaderboard, not theirs.
What about Latvian?
I found no independent 2026 test of these models in Latvian. Tilde's TildeOpen (30B) is trained on Latvian text, according to its makers (LSM, 26 Feb).
Where do the lag figures come from?
Epoch AI, 29 May: 4 months on average, 6 on a stricter test, up from 3 months in October 2025. Epoch by domain: 6 to 7 months in cyber security. Håvard Tveit Ihle, 28 May: 8 to 10 months on private benchmarks, 4 to 6 on public ones.
So which route makes financial sense?
My reading: start with a $20 app for personal interactive work within its limits, or a metered API for light automation. At 10M input plus 2M output tokens/month, GPT-6.1 Sol or Sonnet 5.5 is $40 before extras; Luna is $2. A new local computer becomes easier to justify for sustained compatible work, offline use or keeping data local. Rent a GPU when you need temporary compute or hardware you cannot buy. Measure your own task quality and actual runtime before choosing.
How should I read the buy-versus-rent chart?
It compares cash outlays: $2,499 paid at purchase plus electricity, against RTX 4090 allocation at $0.89/hour plus the stated disks. At 60 hours/month the first-year totals are about $2,513 to buy versus $685 to rent; at 730 hours/month, about $2,674 versus $7,862. The machines have different memory and speed. This is scenario arithmetic, not an inference benchmark or a promise of a four-month return. Labor, backups, networking, repairs, tax and resale value are excluded. The average 100 W draw is an assumption, not a measurement.
Do Claude Max API credits change the comparison?
Yes. Eligible Max subscribers can claim $100 or $200 of monthly API credits after seven days on the plan by linking a Console organization. A $40 Sonnet API example could use those credits instead of creating a separate $40 payment. Unused credits expire each cycle; they do not cover interactive Claude Code or extra usage in Claude/Cowork. Do not count the same credit twice when comparing routes.
Is there a published chart I can explore?
Yes: Runpod's GPU benchmark comparison lets you pick a model and compare measured speed, latency and cost per million output tokens. It is vendor-run; check the workload and pricing assumptions. Artificial Analysis compares capability, speed and price/cost per task across open and closed models. Neither is a complete cost-of-owning-a-computer calculation; our cash chart adds that separate question. Prices for the two illustrated Runpod cards matched the current rate card in the selected browser view.
What others are saying5 voices from MacStories, simonwillison.net, terminalbytes.com and Hacker News
Ran local agents around the clock for 99 days over 310 documents and found cloud APIs would have been too expensive for that always-on work. Says the setup is not for people who just want a $20 subscription.
Federico Viticci, MacStories · 21 Sep 2026 ↗
Calls Qwen3.8-27B excellent, but its default maximum reasoning spent 21 minutes on one drawing that took 137 seconds with reasoning off. Recommends ignoring that default.
Simon Willison · 16 Aug 2026 ↗
Uses Qwen3.8-27B for feed digests, renaming PDFs and summarising threads, and calls it the first local model they trust to run routine work unattended.
TerminalBytes · 27 Aug 2026 ↗
A small development team runs Qwen3.8-27B on four 16 GB graphics cards in the office. Planning still goes to a stronger model.
jononor on Hacker News · 17 Oct 2026 ↗
Finds Muse Spark Open still very far behind DeepSeek and GLM.
montroser on Hacker News · 15 Oct 2026 ↗

















